EIA’s October outlook points to continued diesel cost pressure
The federal forecast anticipates gradual relief, while keeping projected diesel prices above $4 through 2027.
EIA’s October 6 Short-Term Energy Outlook reported a September U.S. retail diesel average of $6.29 per gallon. Its forecast, completed October 1, expects retail distillate prices above $6 in October before a gradual decline.
Why relief could take time
The agency expects distillate inventories to remain below their 2021–2025 average over the forecast period. It projects diesel retail prices above $4 per gallon through 2027 and cautions that lower wholesale margins do not immediately produce lower pump prices.
What this number is—and isn’t
The September figure is a monthly national average, not a current truck-stop quote. The later figures are forecasts, not observed prices or promises. Haul Press’s practical takeaway: keep the forecast date attached to any budgeting assumption and distinguish it from the actual fuel price on a route.
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